The Law of Shitty Clickthroughs
by Andrew Chen · read the original
Chen's law: over time, every marketing channel decays toward terrible performance. Why the first banner ad got a 78% clickthrough and Facebook ads got 0.05%, the three forces behind the decay, and what to do about it.
- 1
The Law, Stated
Channel decay is a law, not an execution failure. Plan on every channel getting worse, and build your strategy around that certainty.
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78% to 0.05%: The Banner Ad's Fall
The first banner ad clicked at 78%. Seventeen years later the average was 0.05%. Every channel you're using is somewhere on that same curve.
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Decay Force #1: Novelty Wears Off
Users habituate to formats, not just to individual ads. Fresh creative slows the decay curve; nothing reverses it.
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Decay Force #2: Competitors Copy You
Successful tactics get copied and bid up. A channel's best economics go to whoever gets there first, and the window closes fast.
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Decay Force #3: You Run Out of Early Adopters
Early adopters respond best and get reached first, so a channel's early numbers flatter you. Performance falls as you scale into the mainstream.
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The Defensive Play: Slow the Decay
Refreshing creative and placements extends a channel's life without saving it. The durable exception: marketing that is genuinely useful to the recipient.
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The Offensive Play: Get to New Channels First
The biggest returns go to whoever arrives at a channel first. 'No one else is doing this' is a point in favor, not a red flag.
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Escape Velocity: Own the Audience, Build Product Channels
Rented channels decay; owned audiences and product-driven loops are the assets that survive. Use channels to build them, not just to buy users.