Almost Too Much Self-Belief

The most successful people Altman knows believe in themselves almost to the point of delusion. Not mild confidence. Enough conviction to hold a contrarian position while nearly everyone tells you you're wrong.

He recalls Elon Musk giving him a tour of the SpaceX factory, talking about landing rockets on Mars. The striking thing wasn't the rockets, it was the certainty on Musk's face. That level of belief is what lets ambitious people keep going through the years when the evidence is against them.

The failure mode is obvious: delusion without correction. So Altman pairs it with a check. Balance self-belief with self-awareness, and truth-seek hard enough that criticism can still reach you. The goal is conviction that updates, not armor that doesn't.