The Last Mover Advantage

First mover advantage is startup folklore, but Thiel argues moving first is a tactic, not a goal. Being first does you no good if someone comes along and unseats you. What matters is being the last mover: the company that makes the final great development in a market and enjoys years or decades of monopoly profits afterward.

This reframes valuation too. Most of a tech company's value comes from cash flows far in the future, often a decade or more out. So the key question is not whether you will be big next year, but whether this business will still be around and dominant in ten years. Durability beats short-term growth metrics.

Durable monopolies share recognizable traits: proprietary technology (ideally 10x better than the closest substitute), network effects, economies of scale, and brand. You rarely have all four on day one, but the design of the business should make them possible.